Will rates go up or down in 2027?
The published forecasts split on direction, but 2027 is the earliest cut year any of them names. The SARB's own Quarterly Projection Model, Bank of America and Standard Bank all place the first cut in 2027; Nedbank and Investec still flag the risk of another hike at the November 2026 meeting. Today repo stands at 7.25% and prime at 10.75%, effective 25 September 2026. Per the interest rate forecast roundup, here is where each tracked view lands:
| Institution | First cut expected | As at |
|---|---|---|
| SARB (Quarterly Projection Model) | 2027 | 23 September 2026 |
| Nedbank Group Economic Unit | Not stated | 23 September 2026 |
| Bank of America | 2027 | 21 September 2026 |
| Investec | Not stated | 7 October 2026 |
| Standard Bank | 2027 | 23 September 2026 |
| PSG | Not stated | 23 September 2026 |
| FNB | Not stated | 23 September 2026 |
The spread of 2027 views is wide: across the sources tracked here, the repo-rate range for the year runs 6.34%–7.50% — from the SARB Forecast Report's 6.34% annual average at the low end to Bank of America's 7.50% projected peak, with easing delayed to the second half of 2027, at the high end.
What will the repo rate be in 2027?
On the SARB's September 2026 Forecast Report, repo averages 6.34% across 2027, down from a 6.98% average across 2026 — implying prime near 9.84%. These are annual averages from the Reserve Bank's own projection model, not a promised path: a 6.34% average is only possible if the rate actually falls during the year. The full model path:
| Year | Annual-average repo | Implied prime |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.98% | 10.48% |
| 2027 | 6.34% | 9.84% |
| 2028 | 5.98% | 9.48% |
| 2029 | 5.84% | 9.34% |
Read the averages, not a year-end promise: an annual average of 6.34% is consistent with repo starting 2027 at 10.75% prime and stepping down through the year. It is not a commitment — the same statement says only that the policy rate stays "broadly stable through the remainder of this year", with "cuts later in the forecast, as inflation falls to 3%". How the repo rate drives your instalment is explained in our repo rate guide.
Did South Africa cut its interest rates?
No — not yet. The most recent move was a hike: on 23 September 2026 the MPC raised repo 25 basis points to 7.25%, taking prime to 10.75% effective 25 September 2026. The next decision is 19 November 2026, the last of 2026, and nothing before it is confirmed. If a cut comes in 2027, it must land at one of the six scheduled meetings:
- 2027-01-2828 January 2027
- 2027-03-1818 March 2027
- 2027-05-2727 May 2027
- 2027-07-2222 July 2027
- 2027-09-2929 September 2027
- 2027-11-2525 November 2027
How much money would I save if interest rates were cut in 2027?
If prime falls to the 9.84% implied by the SARB's 2027 average repo, a R1.5 million bond over 20 years would cost about R 912 a month less than at today's 10.75% prime. If the path extends to the 5.98% 2028 average — implied prime 9.48% — the saving grows to about R 1 266 a month. This is arithmetic at today's dataset rates, not a forecast:
| Bond size | Today at 10.75% | At 9.84% (2027 avg) | − / month | At 9.48% (2028 avg) | − / month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R 1 000 000 | R 10 152 | R 9 544 | −R 608 | R 9 308 | −R 844 |
| R 1 500 000 | R 15 228 | R 14 317 | −R 912 | R 13 962 | −R 1 266 |
| R 2 000 000 | R 20 305 | R 19 089 | −R 1 216 | R 18 617 | −R 1 688 |
Three caveats matter more than the rands. First, annual averages are not a calendar: repo could sit at 7.25% until late 2027 and still average 6.34% if it then falls steeply — Bank of America's second-half-2027 view is exactly that shape. Second, the saving is computed at prime with no margin; your actual rate may differ based on your credit profile, deposit and loan-to-value. Third, Nedbank and Investec both flag the risk of another hike before any cut — the downside case is priced in the rate increase impact calculator.
(Published 12 November 2026. Repo and prime verified against the SARB September 2026 MPC statement; forecast-path figures per the SARB September 2026 Forecast Report as tabulated in the Nedbank Group Economic Unit note of 23 September 2026. Repayment examples: 20-year term at prime, no margin — your actual rate may differ.)