Interest Rate Forecast South Africa: Will Rates Go Down in 2026?
Not according to published forecasts: none of the 7 tracked here expects a repo cut in 2026. The SARB raised repo to 7.25% (prime 10.75%) on 23 September 2026, and 3 of the 7 flag the risk of another hike at the next decision on 19 November 2026. The earliest cut timing any of them gives is 2027.
Below: every forecast attributed, dated and linked, what the SARB's own model shows, and what a rate move would cost your bond.
Last updated: 17 Oct 2026, ahead of the 19 November 2026 MPC decision. This page summarises published forecasts from named external sources. It is information, not financial advice, and no forecast is a guarantee of where rates head next.
Next MPC decision: 19 November 2026. Forecasts expecting a cut in 2026: 0 of 7. Prime = repo + 3.5 percentage points.
By Neil B · Checked against published primary sources · Published 13 Sept 2026 · Last verified 17 Oct 2026
Will interest rates go down in South Africa in 2026?
Only one decision is left this year, on 19 November 2026, and no published forecast tracked here expects it to be a cut. The repo rate is 7.25% and prime is 10.75% after the SARB raised repo by 25 basis points on 23 September 2026 (effective 25 Sept 2026). The decision was unanimous: the committee said it was adopting “a more restrictive monetary policy, with rates above longer-term levels” and projects headline inflation above 5% later this year and early next year, then back around 3% towards the end of 2027 (SARB statement).
Headline inflation was 4.4% in August 2026, up from 4.3% in July 2026 (Stats SA), against the SARB's 3% target. The September 2026 figure is due on 21 October 2026, the last inflation print before the November decision. With inflation above target and expected to rise further, a 2026 cut would require a sharp change in the outlook that none of the sources below anticipates.
Every home-loan repayment is priced off prime, which moves one-for-one with repo. For how the two fit together, see the prime interest rate today and the repo rate guide for South Africa. Our news explainer will interest rates go down in South Africa tracks the same question article by article.
Will interest rates go up in November 2026?
The published views split. 3 of 7 (Nedbank Group Economic Unit, Bank of America and Investec) call or flag the risk of another hike on 19 November 2026; 4 (SARB (Quarterly Projection Model), Standard Bank, PSG and FNB) point to rates staying where they are. Together they span 7.25% to 7.50% repo (10.75% to 11.00% prime) after the meeting.
The SARB's own Quarterly Projection Model has the policy rate “broadly stable through the remainder of this year”, but the committee also modelled adverse scenarios that would need further hikes. For the November preview, see will the repo rate go up in November 2026.
When is the next interest rate decision?
The SARB's Monetary Policy Committee meets six times a year.
The next decision is on 19 November 2026, the last of 2026. The first of 2027 is on 28 January 2027. More detail in when is the next interest rate decision.
| 2026 meeting | Outcome / status |
|---|---|
29 January 2026 | Repo held at 6.75% |
26 March 2026 | Repo held at 6.75% |
28 May 2026 | Repo raised 25bp to 7.00% (effective 29 May 2026; prime rose to 10.50%) |
23 July 2026 | Repo held at 7.00% on a 4–2 vote |
23 September 2026 | Repo raised 25bp to 7.25% (effective 25 September 2026; prime rose to 10.75%) |
19 November 2026 | Next decision |
2027 decision dates: 28 January 2027, 18 March 2027, 27 May 2027, 22 July 2027, 29 September 2027, 25 November 2027 (listed on the SARB's September 2026 statement page). Source for 2026: SARB MPC announcement schedule. This page is refreshed after each decision.
What do banks and economists forecast for the repo rate?
One attributed, dated, linked entry per institution, each published on or around the September 2026 decision.
| Institution | Published view | Cut in 2026? | Published | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SARB (Quarterly Projection Model) | Policy rate "broadly stable through the remainder of this year", with "cuts later in the forecast, as inflation falls to 3%"; the Forecast Report puts the repo average at 6.98% for 2026 and 6.34% for 2027 | No | 23 Sept 2026 | SARB Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee, 23 Sep 2026Retrieved 17 Oct 2026 |
| Nedbank Group Economic Unit | Says "the risks of another rate hike in November remains high", but its "best guess is that the SARB has brought enough space to look through the energy shock for now" | No | 23 Sept 2026 | Nedbank Economic Insights — MPC Decision September 2026, 23 Sep 2026Retrieved 17 Oct 2026 |
| Bank of America | A further 25 basis point hike at the final rate decision of 2026, completing the two hikes it called for September and November and taking repo to a 7.50% peak, with easing delayed to the second half of 2027 | No | 21 Sept 2026 | Moneyweb (Bloomberg) — Bank of America sees two rate hikes for SA this year, 21 Sep 2026Retrieved 17 Oct 2026 |
| Investec | Chief economist Annabel Bishop says recent fuel price increases "could fuel another hike in the repo rate for South Africa in November", noting another 0.25 percentage point hike is priced in by markets for the rest of the year | No | 07 Oct 2026 | IOL — Brace for another interest rate hike, further inflation as fuel hikes unleash a vicious cycle, 7 Oct 2026Retrieved 17 Oct 2026 |
| Standard Bank | Economist Elna Moolman: "It is very possible that this could be the peak in the interest rate hiking cycle", with scope for relief late in 2027 depending on oil prices and second-round effects | No | 23 Sept 2026 | IOL — Have South African interest rates finally peaked? Experts weigh in, 23 Sep 2026Retrieved 17 Oct 2026 |
| PSG | Senior economist Johann Els: "my expectation is no further rate increases after this one, under current circumstances"; cuts could come earlier if oil prices fall sharply | No | 23 Sept 2026 | IOL — Have South African interest rates finally peaked? Experts weigh in, 23 Sep 2026Retrieved 17 Oct 2026 |
| FNB | Chief economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya said the September hike protects the SARB's credibility "without necessarily implying the start of a prolonged tightening cycle"; no cut timing given | No | 23 Sept 2026 | FNB statement on the September 2026 MPC, via Novus Press Bulletin, 23 Sep 2026Retrieved 17 Oct 2026 |
What the Reserve Bank's own model shows
- Quarterly Projection Model: the policy rate “broadly stable through the remainder of this year”, with “cuts later in the forecast, as inflation falls to 3%”.
- Forecast Report annual-average repo: 2026 6.98% · 2027 6.34% · 2028 5.98% · 2029 5.84% (averages over each year, not year-end levels; as tabulated by Nedbank).
- Inflation: headline inflation above 5% later this year and early next year, then back around 3% towards the end of 2027.
The SARB publishes model assumptions, not promises; its repo path was revised at each of the May, July and September 2026 meetings.
The range of published views
| Horizon | Repo range | Implied prime | Behind the range |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 MPC | 7.25% – 7.50% | 10.75% – 11.00% | A hold-to-hike range; none of the published views tracked here expects a cut. Nedbank (23 Sep 2026) sees a high risk of another hike but its best guess is that the SARB has done enough for now; Bank of America (21 Sep 2026) calls a hike to a 7.50% peak; Investec (7 Oct 2026) says fuel price increases could prompt a November hike. |
| End 2026 | 7.25% – 7.50% | 10.75% – 11.00% | November is the last MPC of 2026, so the year-end rate is whatever that meeting decides. The SARB QPM has the policy rate broadly stable through the remainder of the year; Standard Bank and PSG economists said in September that the hike could be the peak. |
| 2027 | 6.34% – 7.50% | 9.84% – 11.00% | Low end: the SARB Forecast Report 2027 annual-average repo of 6.34%, which implies cuts during 2027. High end: Bank of America's 7.50% peak, with easing delayed to the second half of 2027. Standard Bank sees scope for relief late in 2027. |
| 2028 | 5.98% | 9.48% | Only the SARB publishes a 2028 path among the sources tracked here: a 5.98% annual-average repo in its September 2026 Forecast Report. |
Methodology: every row is the institution's own published view, summarised or quoted, with its publication date, a link and the date bond.co.za retrieved it. The “Cut in 2026?” column and the counts on this page classify those cited texts; the ranges are the spread of the cited views, not a bond.co.za prediction. Views published before 23 Sept 2026 that could not be re-verified were removed at this refresh. Prime is derived as repo + 3.5 percentage points.
What would a rate cut save on my bond?
Monthly repayment change at today's prime, over a 20-year term. A calculation, not a forecast.
| Bond | Repayment at 10.75% | Cut 50bp (10.25%) | Cut 25bp (10.50%) | Hike 25bp (11.00%) | Hike 50bp (11.25%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R 1 000 000 | R 10 152 | −R 336 | −R 168 | +R 170 | +R 340 |
| R 1 500 000 | R 15 228 | −R 504 | −R 253 | +R 254 | +R 510 |
| R 2 000 000 | R 20 305 | −R 672 | −R 337 | +R 339 | +R 681 |
about R 253/month off (≈ R 60 657 over 20 years).
about R 254/month added (≈ R 61 054 over 20 years).
Assumptions: standard SA reducing-balance annuity (annual rate compounded monthly), the full 20-year term, a rate of exactly prime and a constant rate throughout. Your bank's rate may sit above or below prime, and a real bond reprices with every MPC decision. Run your own numbers with the bond calculator or home loan calculator, and see how extra bond payments can offset a hike. Developers and AI assistants can query the current prime rate and rate-change impact through our MCP server and API.
When could rates fall in 2027?
Of the 7 views tracked, 3 give a timing for the first cut, and all place it in 2027 or later:
- SARB: “cuts later in the forecast, as inflation falls to 3%”. Its Forecast Report repo average falls from 6.98% in 2026 to 6.34% in 2027, which implies cuts during 2027.
- Bank of America: easing “delayed to the second half of 2027”.
- Standard Bank: scope for relief late in 2027, depending on oil prices and whether transport costs feed into other prices.
Published views for 2027 span 6.34% to 7.50% repo. The SARB's own adverse scenarios (a weaker rand, or higher inflation expectations and wages) would add one or more hikes before easing, per Nedbank's summary of the Forecast Report. Any cut would most likely come at one of the 2027 meetings, the first on 28 January 2027.
Interest rate forecast South Africa: FAQs
Will interest rates go down in South Africa in 2026?
Not according to published forecasts: none of the 7 tracked here expects a repo cut in 2026. The SARB raised repo to 7.25% (prime 10.75%) on 23 September 2026, and 3 of the 7 flag the risk of another hike at the next decision on 19 November 2026. The earliest cut timing any of them gives is 2027. These are third-party views as at their stated dates; bond.co.za does not forecast rates.
Will interest rates go up in November 2026?
Possibly. 3 of the 7 published views tracked here (Nedbank Group Economic Unit, Bank of America and Investec) call or flag the risk of another 25 basis point hike on 19 November 2026; the other 4, including the SARB's own model, point to rates staying where they are. Published views span 7.25% to 7.50% repo after that meeting.
When is the next interest rate decision in South Africa?
The next SARB Monetary Policy Committee decision is on 19 November 2026, the last of 2026. The first 2027 decision is on 28 January 2027.
What is the prime interest rate forecast for 2026?
Prime is repo + 3.5 percentage points, so it only moves when the SARB does. With repo views of 7.25%–7.50% for the end of 2026, prime would end the year between 10.75% and 11.00%.
When could interest rates fall in South Africa?
Of the 7 views tracked, 3 give a timing for the first cut, and all place it in 2027 or later: the SARB's Forecast Report puts the 2027 average repo at 6.34%, Bank of America sees easing in the second half of 2027, and Standard Bank sees scope for relief late in 2027.
How much would a 0.25% rate cut save on my bond?
On a R 1 500 000 bond over 20 years at today's prime of 10.75%, a 0.25 percentage point cut lowers the repayment by about R 253 a month (R 60 657 over the term); a 0.25 point hike adds about R 254 a month. Your bank's rate and term will change the number.
Should I fix my interest rate now?
That is a personal financial decision, and this page is information, not advice. The repayment table above shows what a cut or a hike would mean either way; a registered financial adviser can weigh a fixed rate against your own position.
Informational disclaimer
bond.co.za is an independent educational resource, not a financial advice provider, and does not originate interest rate forecasts. This page summarises third-party forecasts that may prove wrong. Rates, approval and savings are never guaranteed. Figures are as at the stated dates and render from our verified rates dataset.
Last updated: 17 Oct 2026 · Prime effective 25 Sept 2026 · verified 23 Sept 2026 · Forecasts published 21 Sept 2026 to 07 Oct 2026.
Sources
Figures on this page are as at 17 Oct 2026. Each one comes from the source listed below, or is computed from those sources by the same calculation our calculators use.
- SARB Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee, 23 September 2026Repo and prime decision, QPM path, inflation outlook and the 2027 MPC dates · 23 Sept 2026
- SARB — MPC announcement scheduleNext decision 19 November 2026 (date shown: retrieved) · 17 Oct 2026
- SARB September 2026 MPC Forecast Report, as tabulated in Nedbank Group Economic Unit, "MPC Decision September 2026", 23 Sep 2026SARB annual-average repo path and Nedbank view · 23 Sept 2026
- Stats SA — Consumer Price Index, August 2026 (P0141)Headline CPI 4.4% (August 2026) · 23 Sept 2026
- Moneyweb (Bloomberg) — Bank of America sees two rate hikes for SA this year, 21 Sep 2026Bank of America view · 21 Sept 2026
- IOL — Brace for another interest rate hike, further inflation as fuel hikes unleash a vicious cycle, 7 Oct 2026Investec view · 07 Oct 2026
- IOL — Have South African interest rates finally peaked? Experts weigh in, 23 Sep 2026Standard Bank and PSG view · 23 Sept 2026
- FNB statement on the September 2026 MPC, via Novus Press Bulletin, 23 Sep 2026FNB view · 23 Sept 2026
Dates are publication dates unless marked. Every source was retrieved and checked on 17 Oct 2026. bond.co.za originates no forecast; it reports the views above.
You can still price the risk
The forecasts disagree; your budget doesn't have to. Run your own bond amount through the calculator and see what a 0.25% move either way does to your month.