Interest Rate Forecast South Africa
Nobody can tell you where rates are headed — not us, not the banks. But the banks' own economists publish forecasts, and the Reserve Bank tells us what it's watching. Here's what they're saying, updated after every MPC decision. Then: what a rate move would actually cost your bond.
Last updated: 13 Sept 2026, after the July 2026 MPC decision. This page summarises published forecasts from named external sources. It is information, not financial advice — and no forecast, ours or anyone's, is a guarantee of where rates head next.
Next MPC decision: 23 September 2026. Prime = repo + 3.5 percentage points, so every repo move passes through to your bond repayment.
By bond.co.za Editorial Team, Home loan content editor · Reviewed by Registered Mortgage Originator · Published 13 Sept 2026 · Last verified 13 Sept 2026
Where the repo rate and prime rate stand today
The repo rate is 7.00% and prime is 10.50%. Prime last changed on 29 May 2026 — a 25 basis point rise — and was held at the July 2026 MPC (source: SARB, re-verified 12 Sept 2026). Prime is set at repo + 3.5 percentage points.
Every home loan repayment in the country is priced off that prime number — which is why even a 0.25% move matters. For the mechanics of how repo passes through to prime and into your instalment, see our prime interest rate guide.
What the Reserve Bank is forecasting
Sourced from the SARB's published MPC statement — attributed, dated and linked.
In its statement of 23 Jul 2026, the SARB's Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate at 7.00%. Governor Kganyago described the policy stance as “appropriate for now, with rates somewhat restrictive”. Four of the six members preferred to hold the repo rate; two favoured a 25 basis point increase.
- Inflation forecast: headline inflation to remain above 4% until early 2027.
- Quarterly Projection Model: the repo rate “broadly stable through the remainder of the year”.
Read that carefully: the SARB publishes assumptions, not promises. Its own forecasts have been revised at nearly every MPC over the past two years — which is exactly why this page is updated after every decision rather than written once and left to age.
What the bank economists are saying
One attributed, dated, linked entry per institution. Updated after each MPC.
| Institution | Published forecast | Source |
|---|---|---|
| SARB (Quarterly Projection Model) | Repo rate "broadly stable through the remainder of the year", with cuts later as inflation falls back toward 3%As of 23 Jul 2026 | SARB MPC statement, 23 July 2026 |
| FNB Economics | A further 25 basis point increase before the tightening cycle peaksAs of 10 Jul 2026 | FNB Economics Weekly, 10 Jul 2026 (chief economist quoted by Moneyweb, 23 Jul 2026) |
| Nedbank CIB | Risk of a further 25 basis point hike if services and core inflation persist; three 25 basis point cuts pencilled in for 2027As of 23 Jul 2026 | Moneyweb, 23 Jul 2026 |
| Standard Bank | 75 basis points of easing across 2026–27, taking the repo rate to 6.0%As of 27 Mar 2026 | Standard Bank newsroom, 27 Mar 2026 |
The consensus path, as published
| Horizon | Repo consensus | Implied prime |
|---|---|---|
| September 2026 MPC | 7.00% – 7.25% | 10.50% – 10.75% |
| End 2026 | 7.00% – 7.25% | 10.50% – 10.75% |
| Mid-2027 (~12 months) | 6.50% – 7.00% | 10.00% – 10.50% |
| Mid-2028 (~24 months) | 6.00% – 6.75% | 9.50% – 10.25% |
The spread between the highest and lowest published forecasts: for the September MPC, 7.00% to 7.25% repo (10.50% to 10.75% prime), widening to 6.00%–7.25% over 12–24 months. That is not noise — it is the honest answer to “where are rates headed”: even the professionals disagree by that much.
Methodology: every row above is the institution's own published view, summarised without alteration, with its as-of date and a link to the source. The consensus range is the spread of those cited views — not a bond.co.za prediction. Prime is derived as repo + 3.5 percentage points.
What a rate change would cost you
We don't predict rates. We do the maths on what the forecasts would mean for your wallet.
On a R 1 500 000 bond over 20 years at 10.50% prime:
roughly R 251/month off your repayment (≈ R 60 251 over the term).
roughly R 253/month added (≈ R 60 657 over the term).
Your number will differ — this is an illustration, not a quote. Assumptions: standard SA reducing-balance annuity (annual nominal rate compounded monthly), the full 20-year term, a rate of exactly prime, and a constant rate throughout — a real bond reprices with every MPC decision. Computed with the same engine as our bond calculators; rounding only at display.
Want the fuller picture? Check what you could qualify for with the affordability calculator.
When the next MPC decision is
The SARB's Monetary Policy Committee meets six times a year. Decisions are announced at 15:00 SAST.
| Meeting date | Outcome / status |
|---|---|
29 January 2026 | Repo held at 6.75% |
26 March 2026 | Repo held at 6.75% |
28 May 2026 | Repo raised 25bp to 7.00% (effective 29 May 2026; prime rose to 10.50%) |
23 July 2026 | Repo held at 7.00% on a 4–2 vote |
23 September 2026 | Next decision |
19 November 2026 | Scheduled |
Source: SARB MPC announcement schedule. Mark these dates: this page is refreshed within hours of each decision — the forecasts above are only as useful as their as-of dates.
Interest rate forecast South Africa: FAQs
Will interest rates go down in South Africa?
The published forecasts above are the best available answer: over the next 12 months they range from 6.50% to 7.00% repo, and toward 6.00%–7.25% over 12–24 months — each as of its stated date. No one can do better than an honest range.
What is the prime interest rate forecast for 2026?
Prime tracks repo + 3.5 percentage points, so it only moves when the SARB moves. On the published repo forecasts above, prime ends 2026 between 10.50% and 10.75%, easing toward 10.00%–10.50% by mid-2027 if cuts resume.
When is the next repo rate decision?
The next SARB MPC decision is on 23 September 2026, announced at 15:00 SAST (per the SARB's published MPC calendar — table above).
How does a repo rate change affect my bond?
Banks pass repo changes through to prime one-for-one, and your repayment is priced off prime. On the R 1 500 000 / 20-year illustration above, a 0.25% move changes the repayment by roughly R 251 a month. Run your own number with the bond repayment calculator.
Should I fix my interest rate now?
That is a personal financial decision — this page is information, not advice. What the published forecasts would mean for a fixed versus variable repayment either way is exactly what the cost illustration above shows; a registered financial adviser can weigh it against your own position.
Informational disclaimer
bond.co.za is a bond origination service, not a financial advice provider. This page summarises third-party forecasts that may prove wrong. Rates, approval and savings are never guaranteed. Figures are as at the stated dates and render from our verified rates dataset.
Last updated: 13 Sept 2026 · Prime effective 29 May 2026 · verified 12 Sept 2026 · Forecast dataset last refreshed 13 Sept 2026.
You can still price the risk
The forecasts disagree — your budget doesn't have to. Run your own bond amount through the calculator and see what a 0.25% move either way does to your month.