Where the repo rate stands in November 2026
The repo rate — the rate at which the Reserve Bank lends to commercial banks — is 7.25%, effective 25 September 2026. Prime, the benchmark every variable-rate home loan in South Africa is priced against, follows at repo plus 3.5 percentage points: 10.75%. Those levels came from the SARB's September 2026 meeting, where the committee raised the policy rate by 25 basis points unanimously.
The 2026 record so far, from the SARB's own statements:
| MPC statement date | Decision | Repo after | Prime after |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 September 2026 | +25bp | 7.25% | 10.75% |
| 23 July 2026 | Hold | 7.00% | 10.50% |
| 28 May 2026 | +25bp | 7.00% | 10.50% |
| 26 March 2026 | Hold | 6.75% | 10.25% |
Two hikes and two holds. The next meeting is on 19 November 2026 — the last 2026 date on the SARB's MPC calendar — and whatever the committee decides there will set the rate South African buyers carry into 2027.
Why no one can promise an “expected” repo rate
Search “expected repo rate 2026” and you will find confident numbers. Treat them with care: the Reserve Bank does not publish a rate path, and the MPC decides on the data in front of it — CPI, fuel and food prices, the exchange rate, global conditions. The honest answer to “what is the expected repo rate?” is a set of scenarios, not a single number.
The most recent inflation reading cut both ways. The September MPC statement cited headline inflation of 4.4% in its deliberations; the September 2026 CPI, published by Stats SA on 21 October, came in at 4.5% — below the 4.7% forecast, but still above the4.4% the committee had last deliberated on. A committee fighting inflation (two hikes this year) is unlikely to cut; whether it hikes again or pauses is exactly what it will weigh on 19 November 2026.
Older projections have already been overtaken by events. The SARB's own Quarterly Projection Model outputs published before 2026 pointed to a lower rate path than the one that actually unfolded — the two 2026 hikes happened, and those projections no longer describe where the rate is. Projections made before a rate cycle turns are history, not guidance.
The only published bank call we reference here is Bank of America's: a projection of two 25 basis point hikes in 2026. One has landed (September). If the committee hikes again on 19 November 2026, the repo rate would end 2026 at 7.50%. For that call in full, and how it has tracked the year, see our Bank of America article, and our standing South African interest rate forecast page for the published paths we track.
When is the next repo rate announcement?
The SARB's next MPC announcement is on 19 November 2026, with the statement released at approximately 15:00 SAST and a live webcast on the Reserve Bank's website. It is the last scheduled 2026 decision in our central calendar — the committee's next decision after that falls in 2027. Prime moves the same day the repo rate does, so a change on 19 November 2026 would reach new home-loan applications almost immediately and existing variable-rate bonds from the bank's next instalment run.
What would a repo rate hike cost your bond?
If the committee raises by another 25 basis points on 19 November 2026, repo would move from 7.25% to about 7.50% and prime from 10.75% to about 11.00%. bond.co.za's calculation, at 20 years and prime with no margin:
| Bond size | Hold at 10.75% | Hike to 11.00% | Extra / month |
|---|---|---|---|
| R 1 000 000 | R 10 152 | R 10 322 | +R 170 |
| R 1 500 000 | R 15 228 | R 15 483 | +R 254 |
| R 2 000 000 | R 20 305 | R 20 644 | +R 339 |
| R 2 500 000 | R 25 381 | R 25 805 | +R 424 |
These figures assume prime with no margin and a 20-year term. Your actual rate may sit either side of prime: home-loan offers across the major banks typically land between prime minus 1.0% and prime plus 2.0%, depending on your credit profile, deposit and loan-to-value — an illustrative band, not a quote. Use the bond repayment calculator to run both scenarios at your own rate.
What should buyers do before 19 November?
If you are buying in the next one to three months, getting pre-approved now locks in what you qualify for at 10.75% prime. Pre-approval certificates are typically valid for 90 days — long enough to span the 19 November 2026 decision and its aftermath. If the committee holds, your pre-approved amount stands; if it hikes, banks reassess new applications at the higher rate, and the same salary buys less bond.
Under the National Credit Act, banks assess affordability against gross monthly income — the standard industry rule of thumb caps the instalment at about 30% of gross income. A hold keeps that ceiling where it is; a hike compresses it. And the rate you are offered matters as much as the rate the SARB sets: the average concession across originator-submitted applications was 0.67 percentage points below prime, per ooba Home Loans data (as at 3 October 2026). To apply for pre-approval or check what you qualify for with the home loan affordability calculator, the process takes about 10 minutes online.
(Published 2 November 2026. Rate figures verified against the SARB September 2026 MPC statement — repo 7.25%, prime 10.75%, effective 25 September 2026. September 2026 CPI of 4.5% per Stats SA P0141, published 21 October 2026;4.4% reference from the September MPC statement. Repayment examples: 20-year term at prime, no margin — your actual rate may differ.)