The next inflation announcement lands this Wednesday, 21 October 2026 — about a month after CPI hit 4.4% in August, and the last major print before the SARB's 19 November 2026 decision with repo already at 7.25%. Here is the date, the data, and what it could mean for your bond repayment.
When is the next inflation announcement in South Africa?
Wednesday 21 October 2026. That is when Statistics South Africa publishes the September consumer price index (CPI), the country's next inflation announcement, alongside the month's retail sales data. It is the last major inflation release before the SARB's Monetary Policy Committee decides on rates on 19 November 2026, and it follows August's 4.4% headline print.
What did the last inflation print show?
Headline CPI was 4.4% in August 2026 — up from 4.3% in July, with core inflation at 4.1% — all above the 3% point the SARB anchors policy on. The 2026 path explains the Bank's caution: consumer inflation bottomed at 3.0% in February, peaked at 5.0% in June, and has held above the target point since.
What could the September CPI mean for the November rate decision?
Probably no move on the day itself — the MPC decides on 19 November 2026, and one CPI print is only part of what it weighs. But the September release is the last major data the committee reads before that meeting, so it tilts the scales. The SARB's September statement cited fuel prices rising again, elevated services inflation and second-round effects when it hiked 25 basis points to repo 7.25%, and flagged that inflation could run above 5% later in 2026 and into early 2027. A September print at or above 4.4% strengthens the case for another hike; a decisive cooling weakens it. We cost both directions in our 19 November preview — we do not forecast the outcome.
How much more could your bond cost if the SARB hikes again?
Each 25 basis point hike passes straight into prime, which prices variable-rate home loans. At today's prime of 10.75%, a R1 million bond over 20 years costs R 10 152 a month by bond.co.za's computation. One more hike, to prime 11.00%, would lift it to R 10 322 — R 170 more every month:
| Bond | At prime 10.75% | After one more hike (11.00%) | Monthly increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| R 500 000 | R 5 076 | R 5 161 | +R 85 |
| R 1 000 000 | R 10 152 | R 10 322 | +R 170 |
| R 1 500 000 | R 15 228 | R 15 483 | +R 254 |
These are budgeting scenarios, not forecasts — the same maths behind our rate-change repayment table, where the full stress-test lives. To run your own numbers, try the bond calculator or check what you can borrow with the affordability calculator.
What is South Africa's inflation target?
South Africa's inflation target is 3%, with a tolerance band of one percentage point on either side. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced the 3% point on 12 November 2025 — replacing the old 3–6% band — with implementation over two years. The SARB anchors monetary policy on that point, which is why 4.4% inflation still counts as too high and why rate decisions keep leaning against price pressure. The full chain from CPI to your instalment is in our inflation and home loan rates explainer.
Rate figures from the South African Reserve Bank via lib/rates.ts, re-verified 2026-09-23. CPI release date, August print (4.4%; July 4.3%, core 4.1%) and the 2026 CPI path (3.0% February low, 5.0% June peak) from Stats SA data as reported by Rio Times (17 Oct 2026) and Trading Economics (checked 2026-10-19). Inflation target from the announcement of 12 November 2025 (EWN). Inflation projections from the SARB May 2026 Monetary Policy Statement and September 2026 Monetary Policy Statement. Repayment scenarios computed by bond.co.za (20-year term, prime-linked, standard annuity) — illustrative only. Last verified: 2026-10-19.