Update, 23 September 2026: the MPC went on to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%, taking prime to 10.75%. See what the hike actually costs at each bond size in the September 2026 outcome.
South Africa's latest interest-rate decision has already landed: on 23 September 2026 the MPC raised the repo rate by 25 basis points — and it did so on an unusual calendar. Statistics South Africa published the August 2026 CPI on the morning of the same day the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee announced, so the committee set the repo rate with same-day inflation data in hand rather than the usual week-old print. The next decision arrives on 19 Nov 2026.
Does an increase in repo rate affect a home loan?
Yes — if the home loan is on a variable rate, which most South African bonds are. The South African Reserve Bank sets the repo rate, standing at 7.25% (SARB, Current Market Rates, effective 25 Sept 2026). Commercial banks set their prime lending rate at repo plus 3.5 percentage points — 10.75% on the same date — and most home loans are priced at prime plus or minus a margin. When the MPC moves the repo rate, banks move prime in lockstep, and a variable bond repayment follows within weeks. A fixed-rate bond does not change during its fixed period, which is exactly what a fixed rate is for.
How much will my bond repayment increase if rates go up?
The arithmetic is smaller than the anxiety. bond.co.za's own bond calculator — the same annuity formula behind our free bond calculator — puts a 25 basis point rise, from 10.75% to 11.00%, on a 20-year bond at prime like this:
| Bond amount (20 years, prime) | Monthly at 10.75% | Monthly at 11.00% | Extra per month | Extra per year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 000 000 | R 10 152 | R 10 322 | ~R 170 | ~R 2 035 |
| R1 500 000 | R 15 228 | R 15 483 | ~R 254 | ~R 3 053 |
| R2 000 000 | R 20 305 | R 20 644 | ~R 339 | ~R 4 070 |
These figures assume a bond priced exactly at prime with no margin; a profile priced at prime minus 0.5% or prime plus 1% shifts both columns by the same margin, but the difference between them stays the same for a given bond amount. Cumulatively, prime has risen 50 basis points since April 2026 — 25 on 29 May 2026 (SARB, May 2026 statement) and 25 more on 23 September — about R758 a month more on a R1.5 million bond at 11.00% than at the April base of 10.25%, or just over R9,000 a year, on bond.co.za's calculator numbers — the same arithmetic our rate increase impact calculator runs against any balance, at prime or a notch above it.
Why did the August inflation print land on the same day as the rate decision?
Because that is where Stats SA's official release calendar and the SARB's MPC calendar happened to collide: CPI (August 2026, publication P0141) was scheduled for Wednesday, 23 September 2026 (Stats SA, Scheduled Publications), and the MPC announced at 15:00 the same day. The July print, released on 19 August 2026, showed headline inflation cooling to 4.3% year on year from 5.0% in June — the first slowdown in five months, with a monthly increase of just 0.2% (Stats SA, P0141 July 2026).
Direction matters as much as level. Inflation has climbed from 4.0% in April to 4.5% in May and 5.0% in June before the July pullback, and the framework is tighter than it used to be: since November 2025 the SARB has targeted a 3% point target with a 1 percentage point tolerance band, replacing the old 3–6% range — so a 4.3% print sits above the target point rather than comfortably inside a wide band. At the July meeting the MPC held the repo rate at 7.00% by a four-to-two vote, with two members preferring an immediate 25 basis point increase (SARB, July 2026 statement). Five weeks later the committee delivered exactly that: the September hike went through unanimously, same-day CPI print notwithstanding.
When will the repo rate decrease in South Africa?
There is no committed date, and any page that gives you one is guessing. What is on the record: the MPC next meets on 19 Nov 2026 (SARB calendar), and after hikes in May and September 2026, the near-term path the committee's own votes pointed is upward, not downward. What a buyer controls is readiness, not the vote: stress-test your affordability at prime plus one or two percent rather than today's rate, keep an instalment within roughly 30% of gross monthly income — the NCA rule of thumb banks apply — and remember that a pre-approval certificate typically holds for about 90 days (ooba and BetterBond), not indefinitely. For the daily figure, our prime rate tracker is updated whenever the SARB moves.
What to watch next
- The MPC statement at 15:00 on 19 Nov 2026, and what the committee says about the inflation path after the September hike.
- Whether the unanimous September hike marks a peak, or the committee follows through with more at the next meeting.
- Fixed-rate pricing from the banks in the run-up to the meeting — fixed rates embed lenders’ own rate expectations.
In the event, the committee did not need a debate: the September hike went through unanimously, and the spring buying season continues at 10.75%. The next test comes on 19 Nov 2026. Either way, the rand impact on a typical bond is the table above: material over a year, manageable month to month, and knowable in advance.
Figures verified 23 Sept 2026. Sources: SARB September 2026 MPC statement (repo 7.25%, prime 10.75%, effective 25 Sept 2026); SARB Current Market Rates; SARB MPC statements (May 2026 hike, July 2026 hold and 4–2 vote); Stats SA P0141 CPI releases. Repayment figures are bond.co.za calculator output. Last verified: 2026-10-12.