# Will the repo rate go up in September 2026? - Canonical URL: https://bond.co.za/news/will-repo-rate-go-up-september-2026 - Author: Neil B - Published: 2026-09-20 - Last updated: 2026-09-23 Market newsInterest rates The answer, on 23 September 2026: yes — the MPC raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%, taking prime to 10.75% effective 25 September. This page keeps bond.co.za's verified pre-decision read: October's petrol price tracking above R29/litre on mid-month CEF data, Q2 GDP contracted 0.2%, and inflation and growth risks pulling in opposite directions. By [Neil B](https://bond.co.za/expert) · Checked against published primary sources · Published 2026-09-20 · Last verified 2026-09-23 repo rateSARBMPCpetrol price ![A fuel pump on one side and a columned bank building on the other, with a small house and calendar between them and a rising stepped arrow pointing up toward the building, in a plain brand-green and cream palette.](https://bond.co.za/images/news/will-repo-rate-go-up-september-2026.svg) ## Key facts | Item | Detail | Source | | --- | --- | --- | | Repo rate today | 7.25% | SARB, re-verified 2026-09-23 | | Prime lending rate today | 10.75% | SARB, re-verified 2026-09-23 | | Next MPC announcement | 19 November 2026 | SARB MPC calendar, retrieved 2026-09-23 | | Q2 2026 GDP growth (q/q, seasonally adjusted) | \-0.2% (after +0.4% in Q1 2026) | Stats SA GDP release, Q2 2026 (P0441) | | Unemployment rate, Q2 2026 | 33.6% | Stats SA Quarterly Labour Force Survey, Q2 2026 | | Projected October 2026 petrol movement | Increase of more than R2/litre; 95 ULP tracking above R29/litre | CEF mid-month data, via IOL and BusinessTech, September 2026 | **Update, 23 September 2026:** the decision is in — the MPC raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to **7.25%**, taking prime to 10.75%, effective 25 September. See [the September 2026 outcome](https://bond.co.za/news/sarb-september-2026-rate-hike-bond-impact) for what the hike means for your bond. ## What is the expected repo rate for South Africa in 2026? The repo rate stands at 7.25% and prime at 10.75% (SARB, re-verified 2026-09-23). On 23 September 2026 the MPC raised the rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% on a unanimous vote, effective 25 September — after 28 May 2026's increase (the first change since May 2023) and a narrow 4-2 hold on 23 July, where the July statement cited oil and food-price risks from the Middle East conflict as upside risks to inflation. That was the outcome picture going in; what happened next is in the update above. bond.co.za does not make rate predictions; for how analysts frame the likely path, see [bond.co.za's interest rate forecast explainer](https://bond.co.za/interest-rate-forecast-south-africa), and for the current benchmark itself, [today's prime rate page](https://bond.co.za/prime-interest-rate-south-africa-today). ## Why is the petrol price a risk to the repo rate? Petrol feeds straight into headline inflation through transport costs, and October's increase is shaping up as a record. Central Energy Fund mid-month recovery data, as reported by IOL and BusinessTech in September 2026, points to an increase of more than R2 a litre across grades, which would take 95 ULP above R29 a litre for the first time — driven by Brent crude trading around $108 a barrel amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. The July MPC statement explicitly named oil-price risks when four of six members still chose to hold. A fuel shock of this size arriving days before the announcement is the single strongest argument for another increase. CEF mid-month figures are unaudited and move daily; the final October adjustment is set by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy in the first week of October 2026. Treat the R29 tracking as a projection, not a settled price. ## Does the GDP contraction argue for a repo rate cut? It argues against hiking, at least. Stats SA's Q2 2026 GDP release shows the economy contracted 0.2% quarter-on-quarter after growing 0.4% in Q1, with mining, manufacturing and trade the main drags, and the unemployment rate at 33.6% (Stats SA QLFS, Q2 2026). Raising borrowing costs into a stalled economy risks deepening the slowdown. That left the MPC facing a genuine tension on 23 September: an inflation shock arriving on top of a contraction — which is precisely why the outcome was genuinely uncertain rather than a foregone conclusion. ## What happens when the repo rate increases? South African banks price variable-rate home loans off prime, which sits at repo + 3.5 percentage points — so a 25 basis point repo increase takes prime up by the same amount, and the instalment on every variable-rate bond reprices with it. [bond.co.za's companion piece](https://bond.co.za/news/sarb-september-rate-decision-bond-cost) works through exactly what a 25bp hike adds to bonds of R500,000 to R2.5 million, and [the rate-change repayment table](https://bond.co.za/news/what-a-rate-change-does-to-your-bond-repayment) shows the same maths per bond size. If you are house-hunting now, run your target instalment through the [rate increase impact calculator](https://bond.co.za/rate-increase-impact-calculator) before the next decision rather than after it. Rate figures from the South African Reserve Bank via lib/rates.ts, re-verified 2026-09-23. GDP and unemployment figures from Stats SA Q2 2026 releases. Petrol projections from unaudited CEF mid-month data as reported by IOL and BusinessTech, September 2026. bond.co.za has no proprietary data bearing on the MPC outcome; none has been estimated for this piece. Last verified: 2026-09-23. Free Bond Readiness Report ## Buying before rates move? Know your number first Stress-test your target bond against both a hold and a hike with our free rate increase impact calculator, then get a personalised Bond Readiness Report emailed to you: an affordability range, a realistic rate band and the document checklist for your situation. Estimates only, no guaranteed approval. [Stress-test your bond against a rate hike](https://bond.co.za/rate-increase-impact-calculator) ### Get your free Bond Readiness Report A personalised affordability range, a realistic rate band, estimated total upfront costs and the document checklist for your situation. We’ll open a request in your email client, ready to send. Free to use. bond.co.za is an independent educational resource — we do not provide credit, origination, legal or conveyancing services. [About our independence](https://bond.co.za/how-we-make-money). ## Sources - [South African Reserve Bank — September 2026 Monetary Policy Statement](https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/publications/publication-detail-pages/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2026/september)Source for the 23 September 2026 decision: the policy rate raised 25 basis points to 7.25%, prime to 10.75%, effective 25 September 2026, on a unanimous vote. - [South African Reserve Bank — July 2026 Monetary Policy Statement](https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/publications/publication-detail-pages/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2026/july)Source for the 4-2 hold vote on 23 July 2026, when repo stood at 7.00% and prime at 10.50%, and the committee citing oil and food-price risks from the Middle East conflict as upside risks to inflation. - [SARB — MPC announcement webcasts (MPC calendar)](https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/what-we-do/monetary-policy/MPC-announcement-webcasts)Source for the 19 November 2026 announcement date (retrieved 2026-09-23). - [Stats SA — Gross Domestic Product, Q2 2026 (P0441)](https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1854&PPN=P0441)Source for the Q2 2026 GDP contraction of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (after +0.4% in Q1), with mining, manufacturing and trade the main drags. - [Stats SA — Quarterly Labour Force Survey, Q2 2026 (P0211)](https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1854&PPN=P0211)Source for the 33.6% unemployment rate. - [Central Energy Fund — fuel price data](https://www.cef.co.za/)Primary source of South Africa’s monthly and mid-month fuel-price recovery data. The October 2026 projections cited here (an increase of more than R2/litre, with 95 ULP tracking above R29/litre) are unaudited mid-month figures, as reported by IOL and BusinessTech in September 2026. ## More market news [ SARB hikes the repo rate to 7.25% — what it means for your bondThe outcome itself: the 23 September decision, what drove it and what it adds to bond repayments. ](https://bond.co.za/news/sarb-september-2026-rate-hike-bond-impact)[ Rate decision on 23 September: what a hike would cost your bondThe worked per-bond-size instalment maths for a 25bp hike — the companion piece to this one. ](https://bond.co.za/news/sarb-september-rate-decision-bond-cost)[ What a rate change does to your bond repaymentThe repayment table for a 25bp move, and how to stress-test your own bond. ](https://bond.co.za/news/what-a-rate-change-does-to-your-bond-repayment)[ Prime is unchanged — but a bond costs more than it did a year agoWhy today’s bond costs more than a year ago even with prime static since May. ](https://bond.co.za/news/prime-unchanged-bond-costs-up)[ How long is bond pre-approval valid — and what happens if rates move before you buy?What a 23 September decision landing inside your 90-day pre-approval window means. ](https://bond.co.za/news/bond-pre-approval-validity-south-africa) ## Informational disclaimer This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice, a prediction of the SARB's decision, or a guarantee of any interest rate, bond approval or fuel-price outcome. Economic and fuel figures reflect the third-party releases and reporting cited on the dates given and can change as newer data is released. Speak to your lender or a qualified financial adviser about your personal circumstances before making a decision. Rates: SARB, re-verified 2026-09-23. GDP and unemployment: Stats SA, Q2 2026. Petrol projections: unaudited CEF mid-month data, via IOL and BusinessTech, September 2026. Last verified: 2026-09-23. > This is the Markdown version of [https://bond.co.za/news/will-repo-rate-go-up-september-2026](https://bond.co.za/news/will-repo-rate-go-up-september-2026); that HTML page is the canonical version of this content.