# Will interest rates go down in 2027 in South Africa? - Canonical URL: https://bond.co.za/news/will-interest-rates-go-down-in-2027 - Author: Neil B - Published: 2026-11-12 - Last updated: 2026-11-12 Market newsInterest rates Short answer: **2027 is the earliest cut year** in the published forecasts tracked here — the SARB's own model averages **6.34% repo for 2027**, implying cuts during that year. Today the repo rate is **7.25%** and prime **10.75%**. bond.co.za computes what a 2027 cut path would save on your bond. By [Neil B](https://bond.co.za/expert) · Checked against published primary sources · Published 2026-11-12 · Last verified 2026-11-12 interest-ratesrepo-ratesarbrate-forecast2027mpc ![Illustration of a descending stepped line falling toward a house beside a 2027 signpost, on a cream background](https://bond.co.za/images/news/will-interest-rates-go-down-in-2027.svg) ## Key takeaways - 01The SARB's own model implies cuts in 2027. Its September 2026 Forecast Report puts repo at a **6.98% average for 2026** but a **6.34% average for 2027** — an average can only fall like that if the rate comes down during the year (tabulated in the Nedbank Group Economic Unit note of 23 September 2026). - 02Not everyone agrees on timing. **Bank of America** (21 September 2026) sees easing delayed to the second half of 2027 from a 7.50% peak; **Standard Bank** sees scope for relief late in 2027; **Nedbank** says the risk of another hike this November remains high. No view tracked here expects a cut before 2027. - 03The arithmetic, if the SARB path holds: implied prime of **9.84%** versus today's **10.75%** saves about **R 912 a month** on a R1.5 million bond over 20 years — bond.co.za's calculation illustration, not a forecast. - 04Nothing is confirmed before **19 November 2026**, the last MPC of 2026. After that, the SARB's six scheduled 2027 meetings — from 28 January to 25 November 2027 — are where any cut must land. ## Will rates go up or down in 2027? The published forecasts split on direction, but 2027 is the earliest cut year any of them names. The SARB's own Quarterly Projection Model, Bank of America and Standard Bank all place the first cut in 2027; Nedbank and Investec still flag the risk of another hike at the November 2026 meeting. Today repo stands at **7.25%** and prime at **10.75%**, effective 25 September 2026. Per the [interest rate forecast roundup](https://bond.co.za/interest-rate-forecast-south-africa), here is where each tracked view lands: Published views on the first repo cut — attributed and dated, per bond.co.za's forecast roundup dataset. | Institution | First cut expected | As at | | --- | --- | --- | | SARB (Quarterly Projection Model) | 2027 | 23 September 2026 | | Nedbank Group Economic Unit | Not stated | 23 September 2026 | | Bank of America | 2027 | 21 September 2026 | | Investec | Not stated | 7 October 2026 | | Standard Bank | 2027 | 23 September 2026 | | PSG | Not stated | 23 September 2026 | | FNB | Not stated | 23 September 2026 | The spread of 2027 views is wide: across the sources tracked here, the repo-rate range for the year runs **6.34%–7.50%** — from the SARB Forecast Report's 6.34% annual average at the low end to Bank of America's 7.50% projected peak, with easing delayed to the second half of 2027, at the high end. ## What will the repo rate be in 2027? On the SARB's September 2026 Forecast Report, repo averages **6.34% across 2027**, down from a 6.98% average across 2026 — implying prime near **9.84%**. These are annual averages from the Reserve Bank's own projection model, not a promised path: a 6.34% average is only possible if the rate actually falls during the year. The full model path: SARB Quarterly Projection Model annual-average repo path, September 2026 Forecast Report (tabulated in the Nedbank Group Economic Unit note of 23 September 2026). Implied prime uses the repo + 3.5pp convention. | Year | Annual-average repo | Implied prime | | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 | 6.98% | 10.48% | | 2027 | 6.34% | 9.84% | | 2028 | 5.98% | 9.48% | | 2029 | 5.84% | 9.34% | Read the averages, not a year-end promise: an annual average of 6.34% is consistent with repo starting 2027 at 10.75% prime and stepping down through the year. It is not a commitment — the same statement says only that the policy rate stays "broadly stable through the remainder of this year", with "cuts later in the forecast, as inflation falls to 3%". How the repo rate drives your instalment is explained in our [repo rate guide](https://bond.co.za/guides/repo-rate-south-africa). ## Did South Africa cut its interest rates? No — not yet. The most recent move was a **hike**: on 23 September 2026 the MPC raised repo 25 basis points to **7.25%**, taking prime to **10.75%** effective 25 September 2026. The next decision is 19 November 2026, the last of 2026, and nothing before it is confirmed. If a cut comes in 2027, it must land at one of the six scheduled meetings: 1. 2027-01-2828 January 2027 2. 2027-03-1818 March 2027 3. 2027-05-2727 May 2027 4. 2027-07-2222 July 2027 5. 2027-09-2929 September 2027 6. 2027-11-2525 November 2027 ## How much money would I save if interest rates were cut in 2027? If prime falls to the **9.84%** implied by the SARB's 2027 average repo, a R1.5 million bond over 20 years would cost about **R 912 a month less** than at today's 10.75% prime. If the path extends to the 5.98% 2028 average — implied prime 9.48% — the saving grows to about **R 1 266 a month**. This is arithmetic at today's dataset rates, not a forecast: Monthly repayment at prime, 20-year term, no margin — computed by bond.co.za at render time. Illustration, not a quote or a forecast. | Bond size | Today at 10.75% | At 9.84% (2027 avg) | − / month | At 9.48% (2028 avg) | − / month | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | R 1 000 000 | R 10 152 | R 9 544 | −R 608 | R 9 308 | −R 844 | | R 1 500 000 | R 15 228 | R 14 317 | −R 912 | R 13 962 | −R 1 266 | | R 2 000 000 | R 20 305 | R 19 089 | −R 1 216 | R 18 617 | −R 1 688 | Three caveats matter more than the rands. First, annual averages are not a calendar: repo could sit at 7.25% until late 2027 and still average 6.34% if it then falls steeply — Bank of America's second-half-2027 view is exactly that shape. Second, the saving is computed at prime with no margin; your actual rate may differ based on your credit profile, deposit and loan-to-value. Third, Nedbank and Investec both flag the risk of another hike before any cut — the downside case is priced in the [rate increase impact calculator](https://bond.co.za/rate-increase-impact-calculator). (Published 12 November 2026. Repo and prime verified against the SARB September 2026 MPC statement; forecast-path figures per the SARB September 2026 Forecast Report as tabulated in the Nedbank Group Economic Unit note of 23 September 2026. Repayment examples: 20-year term at prime, no margin — your actual rate may differ.) ## Frequently asked questions ### Will interest rates go down? No cut is scheduled or confirmed right now. The last SARB move was a 25 basis point hike on 23 September 2026, taking repo to 7.25% and prime to 10.75%, and the next decision is 19 November 2026. Looking further out, the SARB's own Forecast Report averages repo at 6.34% across 2027, which implies cuts during that year — but Bank of America sees easing only in the second half of 2027, and Nedbank flags a high risk of another hike first. ### What is the new interest rate today? Repo is 7.25% and prime is 10.75%, effective 25 September 2026, after the SARB's unanimous 25 basis point hike of 23 September 2026. The next MPC decision is due 19 November 2026. Variable-rate home loans are priced off prime plus or minus a margin, so your instalment follows whatever prime does. ### What will interest rates be in 2028? Only the SARB publishes a 2028 path among the sources tracked here: an annual-average repo of 5.98% in its September 2026 Forecast Report, implying prime near 9.48%. Treat that as a model average, not a promise — the published 2028 range across the tracked views is 5.98%–5.98%, which in practice is that single SARB figure. ### Get your free Bond Readiness Report A personalised affordability range, a realistic rate band, estimated total upfront costs and the document checklist for your situation. We’ll open a request in your email client, ready to send. Free to use. bond.co.za is an independent educational resource — we do not provide credit, origination, legal or conveyancing services. [About our independence](https://bond.co.za/how-we-make-money). ## Sources - [SARB — Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee, September 2026](https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/publications/publication-detail-pages/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2026/september)Primary source for the rates in force today: repo 7.25% and prime 10.75%, effective 25 September 2026. Also the source of the 2027 MPC meeting dates. - [SARB September 2026 Forecast Report, as tabulated in Nedbank Group Economic Unit, "MPC Decision September 2026", 23 Sep 2026](https://group.nedbank.co.za/content/dam/group/pdf/economic-insights/mpc-decision-september-2026.pdf)Source for the Quarterly Projection Model annual-average repo path: 6.98% (2026), 6.34% (2027), 5.98% (2028), 5.84% (2029). - [SARB — MPC announcement webcasts (official MPC calendar)](https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/what-we-do/monetary-policy/MPC-announcement-webcasts)Source for the 19 November 2026 announcement date and the 2027 meeting schedule. - [bond.co.za — Interest rate forecast for South Africa](https://bond.co.za/interest-rate-forecast-south-africa)The full attributed roundup of published forecasts this article draws on, refreshed after every MPC decision. Repayment figures computed at page render from the standard annuity formula (20-year term at prime, no margin), using rates from our central dataset — never hard-coded into the page. ## More market news [ What happens to your bond if the repo rate stays the same?The 19 November hold, hike and cut scenarios on a real bond. ](https://bond.co.za/news/what-happens-to-your-bond-if-the-repo-rate-stays-the-same)[ Will interest rates go down in South Africa?The full forecast roundup — who expects cuts, and when. ](https://bond.co.za/news/will-interest-rates-go-down-in-south-africa)[ Will the repo rate go down in November 2026?The cut case before the last MPC of 2026. ](https://bond.co.za/news/will-repo-rate-go-down-in-november-2026)[ November 2026 repo rate decision previewWhat September’s CPI print means for the decision. ](https://bond.co.za/news/september-cpi-november-2026-repo-rate-decision-preview)[ Kganyago says current rates are high enough to beat inflationThe Governor’s hold signal, unpacked against the 2026 record. ](https://bond.co.za/news/kganyago-rates-high-enough-to-beat-inflation) ## Informational disclaimer This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a prediction of what the Monetary Policy Committee will decide, at 19 November 2026 or any 2027 meeting. Rate figures are drawn from the SARB September 2026 MPC statement and the SARB September 2026 Forecast Report (as tabulated in the Nedbank Group Economic Unit note of 23 September 2026), listed in Sources. Forecast entries are attributed third-party views — bond.co.za originates no forecast of its own. Repayment and scenario examples assume a 20-year term at prime with no margin and are estimates, not quotes or guaranteed outcomes — your actual rate may be prime plus or minus a margin, and the MPC may hold, hike or cut. Always confirm current rates with the South African Reserve Bank, your lender or a qualified financial adviser before making a financial decision. Prime 10.75%, repo 7.25%, effective 25 September 2026 (SARB September 2026 MPC statement; dataset last updated 23 September 2026). 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