# What is the current inflation rate in South Africa today? September CPI prints 4.5% - Canonical URL: https://bond.co.za/news/current-inflation-rate-south-africa-today - Author: Neil B - Published: 2026-10-25 - Last updated: 2026-10-25 Market newsInterest rates South Africa's current inflation rate is **4.5%** — the September 2026 CPI, published by Stats SA on 21 October 2026. It rose from 4.4% in August but came in below the 4.7% economists' forecast. Prime is 10.75%. bond.co.za explains what the print means for your bond rate. By [Neil B](https://bond.co.za/expert) · Checked against published primary sources · Published 2026-10-25 · Last verified 2026-10-25 inflationcpistats-sasarbrepo-ratempc ![Illustration of a bar chart showing August and September CPI beside a house, with a dashed line marking the 4.7% forecast and a calendar showing 19 November, on a cream background](https://bond.co.za/images/news/current-inflation-rate-south-africa-today.svg) ## Key takeaways - 01South Africa's current inflation rate is **4.5%** — the September 2026 headline CPI (Stats SA P0141, published 21 October 2026), up from 4.4% in August. - 02The print came in below the **4.7%** median forecast of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. - 03Prime stands at **10.75%** and repo at **7.25%**, effective 25 September 2026. The MPC next decides on **19 November 2026**. - 04Forward-rate agreements are pricing two more rate hikes over the next year (Moneyweb/Bloomberg, 21 October 2026) — about **R 510 a month** more on a R1.5 million bond if both land. bond.co.za's calculation, not a forecast. ## What is the current inflation rate in South Africa today? The current inflation rate in South Africa is **4.5%**, as at 21 October 2026, per Stats SA's Consumer Price Index P0141 release. That is the annual increase for September 2026: the same basket of consumer goods and services cost 4.5% more than in September 2025. The previous reading, for August 2026, was 4.4%. The figure matters for home owners because the South African Reserve Bank sets the repo rate — currently **7.25%**, effective 25 September 2026 — to steer inflation, and prime, now **10.75%**, is the benchmark variable-rate home loans are priced against. ## Why did September inflation come in below the forecast? Most economists expected a bigger rise. The median estimate of 17 economists in a Bloomberg survey was **4.7%**, per Moneyweb's report of 21 October 2026 — yet the actual print was 4.5%. The report noted the increase came even after energy prices soared on supply constraints linked to the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Fuel prices hit a record in October 2026 and are set to rise again in November, so the report expects inflation to keep accelerating — September's below-forecast reading is a data point, not a reversal of that trend. ## What does 4.5% inflation mean for the November rate decision? The MPC next decides on **19 November 2026**, and the September print is the last major inflation reading it will see. A 4.5% print sits exactly at the midpoint of the SARB's 3–6% inflation band, and Governor Lesetja Kganyago has repeatedly said policymakers remain committed to getting inflation back to their 3% goal (per the Bloomberg report of 21 October 2026). The committee raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% on 25 September 2026 — a unanimous vote. Below-forecast inflation does not guarantee a hold in November: the MPC is forward-looking, and with fuel set to rise again, the decision remains open. ## What are markets pricing for South African interest rates next? Forward-rate agreements — the instruments traders use to speculate on borrowing costs — are pricing in **two more rate hikes over the next year**, per the Moneyweb/Bloomberg report of 21 October 2026. Each hike is 25 basis points. If both landed, prime would move from 10.75% to about **11.25%**. bond.co.za's calculation, at 20 years and prime with no margin: Monthly repayment at prime (no margin) — 20-year term. Figures computed by bond.co.za; the hike path is market pricing, not a forecast. | Bond size | Today at 10.75% | One hike (11.00%) | Two hikes (11.25%) | Extra / month | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | R 1 000 000 | R 10 152 | R 10 322 | R 10 493 | +R 340 | | R 1 500 000 | R 15 228 | R 15 483 | R 15 739 | +R 510 | | R 2 000 000 | R 20 305 | R 20 644 | R 20 985 | +R 681 | | R 2 500 000 | R 25 381 | R 25 805 | R 26 231 | +R 851 | These figures are estimates assuming prime with no margin and a 20-year term. Your actual rate may be prime plus or minus a margin, set by the bank based on your credit profile, deposit size and loan-to-value. Market pricing can change before the next decision. Run your own numbers with the [bond repayment calculator](https://bond.co.za/bond-calculator) or check what you qualify for today with the [home loan affordability calculator](https://bond.co.za/home-loan-affordability-calculator). ## What should home buyers do before the next MPC decision? If you are buying in the next one to three months, getting pre-approved now locks in what you qualify for at 10.75% prime. Pre-approval certificates are typically valid for 90 days — covering the 19 November 2026 decision and its aftermath. A bond originator submits your application to multiple banks simultaneously, which typically produces a better rate than a single-bank application — the industry average rate concession across originator-submitted applications was 0.67 percentage points below prime, per ooba Home Loans data (as at 3 October 2026). To [apply for pre-approval](https://bond.co.za/home-loans/pre-approval) or compare what bond.co.za can offer, the process takes about 10 minutes online. (Published 25 October 2026. Rate figures verified against the SARB September 2026 MPC statement. Inflation figures 4.5% (September 2026) and 4.4% (August 2026) per Stats SA P0141, published 21 October 2026; forecast and market-pricing context per Moneyweb/Bloomberg, 21 October 2026. Repayment examples: 20-year term at prime, no margin — your actual rate may differ.) ## Frequently asked questions ### What is the current inflation rate in South Africa today? The most recent figure is 4.5% — the annual CPI increase for September 2026, published by Stats SA on 21 October 2026 (P0141 release). It rose from 4.4% in August and came in below the 4.7% median forecast of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Verify future prints at www.statssa.gov.za. ### How much has CPI increased in the last 12 months? Prices in South Africa increased 4.5% in the 12 months to September 2026, per Stats SA's P0141 release published on 21 October 2026. That is the year-on-year headline rate: the same basket of goods and services costing 4.5% more than a year earlier, after a 4.4% annual increase recorded for August 2026. ### What is inflation likely to be in September 2026? This is no longer a forecast: Stats SA published the September 2026 figure on 21 October 2026, and it is 4.5% — below the 4.7% median of 17 economist forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. The next monthly print (October 2026 CPI) follows in November 2026, with fuel prices expected to rise again that month per the Bloomberg report. ### Get your free Bond Readiness Report A personalised affordability range, a realistic rate band, estimated total upfront costs and the document checklist for your situation. We’ll open a request in your email client, ready to send. Free to use. bond.co.za is an independent educational resource — we do not provide credit, origination, legal or conveyancing services. [About our independence](https://bond.co.za/how-we-make-money). ## Sources - [Stats SA — Consumer Price Index (P0141), September 2026](https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1854&PPN=P0141)Primary source for the 4.5% September 2026 headline CPI, published 21 October 2026. - [Moneyweb/Bloomberg — "Inflation up less than expected in September" (Bonolo Mokonoto, 21 October 2026)](https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/economy/inflation-up-less-than-expected-in-september/)Source for the 4.7% Bloomberg median forecast (17 economists), the record fuel prices expected to rise again in November, Governor Kganyago's stated 3% goal, and forward-rate agreements pricing two more hikes over the next year. - [SARB — Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee, September 2026](https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/publications/publication-detail-pages/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2026/september)Primary source for the rates in force today: repo 7.25% and prime 10.75%, effective 25 September 2026, after a unanimous 25 basis point hike. - [South African Reserve Bank (SARB) — MPC announcement webcasts](https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/what-we-do/monetary-policy/MPC-announcement-webcasts)SARB official MPC calendar — source for the 19 November 2026 announcement date. Repayment figures computed at page render from the standard annuity formula (20-year term at prime, no margin), using rates from our central dataset — never hard-coded into the page. ## More market news [ Stats SA September CPI out today: what it means for November bondsThe pre-print view: what was at stake before the figure landed. ](https://bond.co.za/news/stats-sa-september-cpi-2026-november-rate-impact)[ Will the repo rate go up in November 2026?The two scenarios in full — and what each adds to a real bond. ](https://bond.co.za/news/will-repo-rate-go-up-november-2026)[ SARB raises the repo rate to 7.25%: the September 2026 hike explainedThe last decision: what the September hike added at each bond size. ](https://bond.co.za/news/sarb-september-2026-rate-hike-bond-impact)[ When is the next inflation announcement in South Africa?The CPI release calendar and why each reading matters for your bond rate. ](https://bond.co.za/news/when-is-the-next-inflation-announcement-south-africa)[ When is the next interest rate decision in South Africa?The MPC calendar for the rest of 2026 and into 2027. ](https://bond.co.za/news/when-is-the-next-interest-rate-decision-south-africa) ## Informational disclaimer This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a prediction of what the Monetary Policy Committee will decide on 19 November 2026. Inflation figures are drawn from Stats SA's P0141 release of 21 October 2026 and the Moneyweb/Bloomberg report cited in Sources. Rate figures are drawn from the SARB September 2026 MPC statement. Market pricing described here reflects forward-rate agreement pricing as reported on 21 October 2026 and can change at any time. Repayment and scenario examples assume a 20-year term at prime with no margin and are estimates, not quotes or guaranteed outcomes — your actual rate may be prime plus or minus a margin. Always confirm current rates with the South African Reserve Bank, your lender or a qualified financial adviser before making a financial decision. Prime 10.75%, repo 7.25%, effective 25 September 2026 (SARB September 2026 MPC statement). CPI September 2026: 4.5%, August 2026: 4.4% (Stats SA P0141, published 21 October 2026). 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